Economist: house prices may raise 20%-30% next year
From: Post time:2009-12-28
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On December 26 at a Financial Summit Forum in Nanjing, economist and professor with the Chinese Academy of Governance Wang Xiaoguang said that the current property market is not very healthy, but as China will continue to implement an appropriate loose monetary policy next year, house prices are very likely to rise by 20 percent -30 percent.
Wang Xiaoguang said over the past five years, 10 percent of the richest in the population bought 50 percent of the houses, 40 percent of the wealthy bought 85 percent of the houses, the remaining 60 percent ordinary people bought only 15 percent of the houses, thus the house price rise is clearly unhealthy.
"However, I do not think next year's house prices will drop. An increase of 20 percent -30 percent next year will be no problem." He explained that at present the only factor in deciding house prices is the currency. In 2009, 4 trillion yuan went into the property market, so it is not unexpected that house prices soared. In 2010 there is to be 7.5 trillion supply of credit, so housing prices will still rise.
Wang thinks that China's real estate is driven by monetary and speculative, and the market must be adjusted to achieve real growth in the real estate industry. He gives two premises: the really "appropriate" monetary policy and the real estate industry policy adjustments. "The recent housing market adjustment is not real adjustment, the real adjustment may appear in 2011 or 2012, and then the real estate market bubble could burst."
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